W. Lloyd Williams

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Interesting Chart: Home Prices and Gold

The compound effect of the decline in real estate and the strength of commodities has created an interesting comparison. The important decision is how to position yourself now.

Subscriber Only Content Subscribers should do a comparison of IAU over the past five years to see just how strong commodities are on a relative strength basis.

Interesting Chart: Future of Commodities?

Source: Jeremy Grantham - GMO Quarterly Letter - April 2011

  When the world's fastest growing economy is consuming commodities at these rates... what is the future of commodities?

Subscriber Only Content For more information on the impact of consumption will have on commodities and their position in the marketplace and client portfolios please download summary page from Jeremy Grantham's Letter. Made available by permission from the publisher.

Interesting Chart: Gasoline

Source: Chart of the Day

The SIA Market Report portfolio has an 8% position in United States Gasoline FD LP (GAS) as one of the strongest relative strength commodities. See chart below.

Source: SIA Market Report

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Another Reason for Tangibles

Colin Barr wrote an interesting article for Fortune last week, titled Lost decade? We've Already Had One. The article sheds further light on the blog post earlier concerning the increase in earning on the S&P 500.

GDP that stems from new debt — mainly deficit spending — is phony: it is debt-financed consumption, not prosperity. Net of deficit spending, our prosperity is nearly unchanged from 1998, 13 years ago. - Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates

The article reinforces our concentration in commodities and commodity-driven markets as the assets with the greatest relative strength. Domestic US equities substantially lag in strength and hold a minority position in the portfolio currently.

Subscribers will recall the importance of the low correlation between tangibles and intangibles. These two large market categories comprise the macro movement of the markets, as they shift over long periods of time from tangibles to intangibles. Those investors limited to only the intangibles of stocks, bonds, and cash are handicapped in all markets conditions.

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